Belgium Housing Market Slows as Property Demand Decreases

Statistics Belgium reports a 1.15% rise in house prices in Q3 2023, the lowest growth since 2015. Rising interest rates contribute to the slowdown.

Belgium housing market is currently experiencing a slowdown, with property demand decreasing due to rising interest rates. According to Statistics Belgium, the nationwide house price index in Belgium rose by only 1.15% in the year to Q3 2023, the lowest y-o-y price growth since Q1 2015. When adjusted for inflation, prices actually dropped by 2.26% over the same period. Existing dwelling prices remained steady in Q3 2023 compared to the previous year, while new dwelling prices saw an increase of 5.05%.

The total number of residential property transactions in Belgium dropped by a significant 17.5% in the first three quarters of 2023, reaching 92,741 units compared to the previous year. This decline was observed across all three regions of the country. Belgium housing market has historically followed the trends of the economy, with house prices rising during periods of economic growth and stagnating during economic downturns.

Despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, Belgium housing market remained strong in recent years. However, the market started to slow down in 2022, with demand falling and the economy showing signs of stagnation. In 2023, Belgium's economic growth decelerated to 1.5% compared to the previous year, indicating a sluggish economic outlook for the country.

The housing market in Belgium is divided into three regions: the Flemish Region, the Walloon Region, and Brussels. Each region has its own parliament and executive administration, with power increasingly devolved. Property prices in Brussels have historically seen the highest price increases, with prices surging almost 200% from 1998 to 2008.

Belgium house prices overvaluation has been moderating in recent years, with estimates ranging from 6% to 15%. This decline in overvaluation is attributed to factors such as strong household income growth, high inflation, and robust job creation. The housing market is no longer as overvalued as it was before, reducing the potential for a severe price correction in the future.

Property transactions in Belgium have been falling sharply, with the total number of residential property transactions declining by 17.5% in the first three quarters of 2023. Residential construction activity has also been on the decline, with the total number of new residential building permits authorized falling by 12.9% in the first ten months of 2023.

Mortgage interest rates in Belgium have been rising sharply, following key rate hikes by the European Central Bank to combat high inflation. The average interest rate for new housing loans rose to 3.9% in December 2023, up from 3.08% a year earlier. This increase in interest rates has led to a slowdown in Belgium mortgage market, with the volume of new mortgage loans drawn down by 31.9% in 2023.

Gross rental yields in Belgium have remained steady, with apartments offering rental yields ranging from 3.27% to 6.67% across different cities. The Belgium rental market accounts for about 30% of the housing stock, with rental yields remaining attractive for international investors.

Despite a slowdown in economic growth, Belgium's labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate standing at 5.4% in December 2023. However, the country's public finances are strained, with a budget deficit of about 4.9% of GDP in 2023 and a gross national debt of 105.3% of GDP.