Breaking News: Global House Price Trend Ending

Real estate analysts conducted a poll from August 14 to 31, involving more than 130 housing analysts in major real estate markets such as the US, UK, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and India, according to Reuters News Agency. The poll results indicate that the recent decline in global house prices is nearly over, with average house prices in major markets currently decreasing less than anticipated earlier in the year and expected to increase again in 2024.

The recent global house price slump has all but ended as average house prices in major markets fell less than predicted at the start of the year. Real estate analysts conducted a poll from August 14 to 31, involving more than 130 housing analysts in major real estate markets such as the US, UK, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and India, according to Reuters News Agency. The poll results indicate that the recent decline in global house prices is nearly over, with average house prices in major markets currently decreasing less than anticipated earlier in the year and expected to increase again in 2024.

Breaking News: Global House Price Trend Ending - What You Need to Know!

Many homeowners have remained relatively unaffected by the double-digit decline in the real estate market that was previously forecasted. Factors such as high household savings, limited supply, and increased immigration have contributed to this outcome. Despite rising mortgage rates, mortgage interest rates have not had a significant impact on these homeowners. Those with cheap mortgages and near-zero interest rates, particularly in the US, have chosen to remain in their current homes, resulting in limited supply and a lack of excitement in the housing market. However, this situation is disadvantageous for first-time homebuyers who have been waiting on the sidelines due to tight supply and rising prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. As existing homeowners bid up prices, it becomes increasingly challenging for first-time buyers to enter the market.

Recent poll results have challenged the assumption that the next move of most central banks will be to cut interest rates, particularly in economies with the fastest house price inflation in recent years like the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. The unexpected early stabilization in these markets has been attributed to the belief that interest rates have peaked and will start to decline again as early as the first half of next year.

However, China remains an exception to this optimism. Despite generally raised forecasts for property prices this year and next, average home prices in China are projected to stagnate. In contrast, the US market forecasts indicate that average house prices will decrease by 2.8% and 4.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Similarly, house prices in New Zealand and Canada, which experienced significant increases of 40-50% during the pandemic, are expected to fall approximately 5% this year but rebound by about 5% and 2% in 2024. These revised projections are an improvement over previous forecasts of an 8-9% decrease in 2023 and a 2-3.4% increase in 2024. In India, where the real estate market did not experience a booming demand during the pandemic, house prices are expected to rise steadily in the coming years.

Looking at the German real estate market, analyst polls suggest that average house prices will fall by 5.6% this year and remain flat in 2024. The UK anticipates a more modest decline of 4% in house prices this year, with no growth expected for the following year. Affordability remains a global issue, with over half of the respondents (55 out of 103) predicting a decrease in first-time homeowners' ability to afford a home in the next year. However, 48 respondents believe that affordability will improve. Compounding the issue is the high demand for housing surpassing supply, resulting in an expected increase in average rents and worsened rental affordability. The majority of analysts (65 out of 101) foresee rental affordability deteriorating in the next year, while 36 people anticipate improvements in rental housing payments.

In conclusion, the recent poll results and analysis indicate that the global house price trend may be ending sooner than previously expected. Despite initial predictions of a significant decline, various factors such as high household savings, limited supply, and increased immigration have contributed to the stabilization of house prices in major markets. However, it is important to note that China remains an exception, with stagnant average home prices projected. The revised forecasts for countries like the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia suggest a potential rebound in house prices in 2024. While affordability remains a concern for first-time homebuyers, the prospects for rental affordability are expected to worsen due to the growing demand for housing. Overall, the outlook for the global housing market is one of cautious optimism.