European Central Bank may raise interest rates two more times



The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its interest rates by 25 basis points this June, followed by another 25 basis points in July, according to most economists polled by Reuters.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its interest rates by 25 basis points this June, followed by another 25 basis points in July, according to most economists polled by Reuters. This move follows seven previous rate hikes since July 2022, with a total increase of 375 basis points, as the ECB aims to curb inflation in the Eurozone. Despite overall inflation dropping to 6.1% in May from a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, it remains over three times higher than the ECB's 2% target, and economists predict that it will remain above 2% until at least 2025, averaging 5.5% and 2.5% this year and next.

European Central Bank may raise interest rates two more times

Meanwhile, the ECB's core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, only eased slightly to 5.3% in May, and is expected to decline slightly to an average of 4.9% in the next quarter before falling to 3.9% in the last three months of the year. The ECB is thus forecasted to continue raising interest rates in order to maintain euro strength through the summer, but analysts predict that it will pause on further increases after July, with 38 out of 59 economists surveyed anticipating no change to the deposit rate at 3.75% until the end of 2023.

Despite the recent slowdown in economic activity in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany, economists predict a recovery in the second quarter and 0.2% quarterly growth for the rest of the year. Price pressures and inflation expectations have eased somewhat, but not enough to deter the ECB from continuing its aggressive rate-hiking cycle.

European Central Bank may raise interest rates two more times

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