France’s 2026 real estate market opens cautiously: buyers hold back, notaries forecast further price drops and 80% advise selling before buying. Savings €6.43T.
The French housing market has started 2026 in a cautious, wait-and-see mode, according to the leading notarial real estate portal Immonot and a panel of notaries surveyed at the end of 2025. After an autumn 2025 recovery, buyer momentum cooled and market sentiment darkened as fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties weighed on purchasing decisions.
Key takeaways
• Buyers adopting wait-and-see stance rose from 30% at the end of August to 44% in early November 2025 (forecasted 38% end-December).
• 57% of the notaries’ panel are pessimistic about the short-term outlook.
• 58% of notaries expect housing prices to fall further in 2026; 40% expect stability.
• Loan production rose sharply: €12.8 billion in September 2025 (double the February figure).
• French household savings reached €6,430 billion (€6.43 trillion), providing a large financial buffer.
• 80% of notaries recommend selling before buying a new home.Why activity has slowed
Professor Bernard Thion and notaries attribute the slowdown to a “compensation” effect: many purchases were brought forward during the autumn recovery, leaving fewer transactions at the start of 2026. At the same time, rising uncertainty — driven by global trade tensions and domestic budgetary tightening — is prompting buyers to postpone decisions. The share of buyers classified as “wait-and-see” climbed markedly through autumn 2025, and pessimism among notaries grew to about 57% by early November.
Credit costs and mobility friction
Mortgage rate dynamics are a key brake on residential mobility. Buyers who took loans between 2016 and 2022 benefited from historically low rates (~1–1.5%). To upgrade now, many face borrowing at roughly 3–3.5%, eroding the monthly-payment advantage that previously enabled moves despite capital gains. This “rate penalty” is slowing owner-occupier moves even when homes have appreciated.
Price picture: stabilizing near the bottom
Prices show small month-to-month variations and overall point toward stabilization near a lower plateau. Immonot’s December 12, 2025 indicator put the median house sale price at €200,000 (up 2.56% over three months) and the median apartment price at €2,800/m² (stable over the same period). Still, 58% of notaries expect further housing price declines in 2026; 40% expect stability and just 2% foresee an increase.
Segment outlooks differ:
• Housing: mostly pessimistic (majority expect declines).
• Land: closely split, with about half expecting decreases and half expecting stability.
• Retail/commercial: most vulnerable — roughly 69% of respondents expect prices to fall, reflecting political and economic uncertainty.Loan production and buyer profiles
Access to credit eased in 2025: recorded housing loan production reached €12.8 billion in September (versus about €6.9 billion in February), and lower-income buyers and first-time buyers now make up more than half of borrowers (53.1%). This reorientation toward first-time buyers could support demand at certain price levels, even as overall sentiment remains cautious.
Notaries’ practical advice: sell before you buy
Given weak short-term price momentum and the possibility of further declines, 80% of notaries recommend selling a current property before buying another (about two-thirds give the same advice for building land). The rationale: avoid being left with two mortgages or having to sell into a falling market. A minority of professionals — rising from 4% to 11% for housing by year-end — think the market has hit bottom and favour buying first, but this remains a minority stance.
Macro backdrop and upside risks
French households’ record savings — estimated at €6.43 trillion and largely parked in regulated savings accounts and life insurance — are a major buffer and could enable swift market rebounds when uncertainty fades. At the same time, global trade moves (including tariff announcements abroad) and domestic budget cuts are dampening confidence and investment appetite. A pending law to simplify urban planning and accelerate housing construction has the potential to change dynamics for building land once it advances through the legislative process.
Bottom line
Early 2026 looks like a consolidation phase rather than a fresh upswing. Large household savings and renewed loan availability provide ammunition for a recovery, but credit-rate friction and geopolitical-plus-budgetary uncertainty are keeping buyers on the sidelines. For now, most notaries advise caution — and recommend selling before buying to limit exposure if prices fall further.
