France housing market steadies: mortgages ~3.5%, 2026 sales forecast ~980,000 and prices +2–3%. Political uncertainty still the main brake on household decisions.
France’s property market is entering 2026 on steadier ground, with modest but broad-based price rises, mortgage rates that have stabilised and experts forecasting nearly one million transactions next year — even as political uncertainty continues to temper household appetite for long-term commitments.
A stronger close to 2025
After a rebound in 2025, the market closed the year with 929,000 transactions, an 11% increase year-on-year. All Real Estate Price Indices (IPI) are now positive, rising between +1.1% and +2.9% depending on the indicator, marking a shift from the largely downward trend seen a year earlier. Rural markets have been especially dynamic, posting a +2.8% increase versus just +0.3% in 2024.
City-by-city picture
Among major cities, Nice stands out: the barometer records a +3.3% annual rise and an average price of €5,274/m² — though expert Thomas Lefebvre notes local dynamics may point to gains “beyond +5% over one year.” Bordeaux (+2.5%) now averages €4,434/m², Toulouse is up +2.3% to €3,520/m² and Marseille rose +1.8% to €3,549/m². Montpellier was essentially flat (+0.2%).
Paris has returned to growth after a slight dip in 2024, with prices up +2.9% to €9,827/m² as of January 1, 2026. Most of the Top 10 cities are now in the green, although some towns like Strasbourg recorded a small fall (-1.1%).
Mortgage market: stability, not a new cutting cycle
Lending rates stabilised from spring 2025 after earlier cuts and stood at roughly 3.5% over 25 years (3.4% over 20 years) as of December 1, 2025, based on Pretto data cited in the barometer. Analysts say the central scenario for 2026 is one of stability rather than a fresh cycle of rate cuts. Competition between lenders could produce marginal rate adjustments, but a major fall below the current level is not expected.
Outlook for 2026: modest growth and nearly one million sales
SeLoger and Meilleurs Agents project credit rates around 3.5%, approximately 980,000 transactions and a price rise of about +2–3% for 2026. The report highlights several favourable fundamentals: contained inflation close to target, modest wage growth that outpaces inflation, and a stable unemployment trajectory — all supporting demand that has largely returned to pre-2022 levels.
Energy rules and rental market effects
Changes to the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) could reclassify roughly 850,000 homes, removing them from the most penalised energy categories and easing pressure on the rental market. On that front, rent inflation has slowed markedly to about +1.3% year-on-year (down from nearly +3% a year earlier), helped in part by some households returning to the purchase market. Still, supply shortages persist: in Paris the number of rental properties remains 30–40% below pre-pandemic levels.
Political uncertainty: the key constraint
Despite healthy fundamentals, political and regulatory uncertainty remains the main obstacle to stronger market momentum. Real estate decisions lock households into 15–25 year commitments, so instability in rules, taxation or policy discourages investment and purchasing. Industry professionals warn that without a clear, coherent and stable housing strategy, the structural crisis affecting access to housing and mobility will be difficult to resolve.
Bottom line
The French housing market looks set for a year of consolidation rather than dramatic change in 2026: steady mortgage rates, modest price increases, and near‑pre‑pandemic transaction levels. But the path to a more robust and predictable recovery depends heavily on political clarity and consistent long-term policy for housing and investment.
