The final months of 2025 have brought a noticeable slowdown to the French real estate market, according to the latest reports from notaries across the country. Following a brief resurgence of activity earlier in the autumn, both buyers and sellers are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they assess the implications of political and economic developments.
Temporary Slowdown After a Busy Start
After a relatively busy period since the rentrée (back to school season), French real estate transactions have temporarily slowed down. Despite hopes that the newly adopted 2026 budget and stabilized interest rates would boost the market, most notaries in the Immonot network expect this pause in activity to persist at least through the end of the year. This easing appears to be a correction to high transaction volumes seen earlier in 2025.
Buyer Uncertainty Increases
French households remain cautious, with the proportion of potential buyers choosing to wait rising from 30% in August to 44% in early November. Although this figure could drop slightly to around 38% at the end of December, pessimism among market watchers is growing—from 43% to 57% according to the survey.
This hesitation is largely driven by concerns around fiscal policy, unresolved legislative issues, and ongoing geopolitical instability. Additionally, the flexibility afforded by France’s exceptionally high household savings—totaling €6,430 billion and a savings rate near 20%—allows potential buyers to quickly reconsider or defer their plans as the economic landscape shifts.
Access to Credit: A Mixed Blessing
While the production of new home loans grew to €12.8 billion in September (from €6.9 billion in February), higher interest rates are making it more difficult for certain buyers to upgrade or purchase larger properties. Those who locked in mortgages at 1–1.5% between 2016 and 2022 are now faced with refinancing at 3–3.5%, which offsets capital gains with higher monthly payments.
Yet, this environment has allowed more first-time buyers and less wealthy households to re-enter the market, now representing over half of new borrowers.
Stable Prices, Pessimistic Outlook
Price levels have generally stabilized following a slight 1.1% increase in Q1. Monthly fluctuations are minor, and experts suggest that the market may be approaching its floor.
According to notary forecasts:
- 58% expect home prices to continue falling
- 40% anticipate stability
- Only 2% foresee an increase
The outlook is similarly subdued for land, while commercial real estate is even more bearish—69% predict falling retail prices.
Sell Before You Buy: The Preferred Strategy
In this uncertain climate, most notaries (80% for homes, 67% for land) strongly recommend selling existing properties before making a new purchase. This advice reflects caution due to weak price growth and an uncertain future. However, optimism is rising among a minority; supporters of buying before selling have more than doubled to 11%, hinting at early hopes for a 2026 rebound.
Legislative and Economic Clouds on the Horizon
Little change is anticipated in the economic environment: new U.S. tariff hikes, French budget reforms, and a slow pace of legislative simplification all combine to suggest continued sluggishness for real estate. The French government’s ongoing efforts to streamline urban planning could boost land purchases in the long term, but immediate impacts are expected to be limited.
Outlook: Stability, Vigilance, and Careful Optimism
For those considering buying or selling in France, the message from notaries is clear: caution first. With prices stabilized at low levels, now may be the time to secure a safe transaction—especially if selling before buying. However, watchful optimism and readiness to adapt remain key in the ever-shifting French property market.
Stay tuned for updates on the French real estate market and tips for navigating property transactions in 2026.
