US Real Estate Market: Price Drops in Key States

Discover which counties in California, New Jersey, and Illinois are poised for significant price declines in the US real estate market.

Home prices in the United States may currently be experiencing an unprecedented surge, yet the exuberance of this market may be fleeting, as recent analyses suggest. A comprehensive report has identified over 50 counties nationwide that are teetering on the precipice of a potential housing market catastrophe. For first-time buyers, this scenario could represent an opportune moment to secure a property at a more favorable price point; conversely, it poses a significant threat to existing homeowners who are relishing the inflated valuations of their real estate assets.

According to an extensive study conducted by the property-data firm Attom, states such as California, New Jersey, and Illinois are home to the majority of counties predicted to experience a dramatic decline in property values. The culprits behind this impending downturn are familiar: escalating foreclosure rates, the prevalence of underwater mortgages, and rising unemployment figures.

Attom's analysis encompassed data from 600 counties across the United States, pinpointing critical areas of concern, including the metropolitan regions of New York City and Chicago, alongside substantial portions of California. Notably, of the 51 counties deemed most vulnerable, 24 are situated within these high-risk locales, encompassing boroughs such as Brooklyn, Staten Island, and The Bronx in New York, as well as several counties in New Jersey, including Essex and Union. Additionally, Midwestern counties like Cook in Illinois and Lake in Indiana have also found themselves on this precarious list, alongside a dozen counties scattered throughout California, from Butte in the north to Riverside in the south.

Meanwhile, pandemic-era housing hotspots in the Sun Belt, such as Fort Worth and Tampa, are already experiencing a downturn, with property values declining as the market becomes saturated with listings. Cities like Austin, Texas, and Cape Coral, Florida, have borne the brunt of these shifts, while real estate markets in Lakeland and Crestview, Florida, are also witnessing a downward trajectory.

Some homeowners are witnessing the staggering depreciation of their property values, with reductions approaching half a million dollars in some cases, prompting real estate professionals to label this phenomenon as potentially the most severe real estate crisis in decades. While buyers may find solace in these softer markets, it is prudent to remain vigilant.

The average down payment has escalated to an astonishing $67,500, with certain metropolitan areas exceeding the $400,000 threshold. “Given the ongoing challenges facing the housing market, it is imperative to closely monitor regions where key indicators suggest an elevated risk of complications,” experts advise. Furthermore, down payments have surged in percentage terms, with the typical buyer now contributing 18.6% of the purchase price as of June, a notable increase from 15% the previous year. Elevated mortgage rates compel buyers to allocate more funds upfront in an effort to mitigate the financial impact. While the housing market may currently appear robust, ominous clouds are gathering on the horizon, signaling potential turbulence ahead.