Discover SeLoger’s 2026 forecast for France’s real estate market: old property transactions could reach 960,000, with prices rising 2–3% and stable mortgage rates at 3.25–3.5%. Find out how banks and buyers are adapting.
France’s real estate sector, particularly for existing (old) properties, is showing promising signs of moderate recovery heading into 2026. According to recent projections from SeLoger, one of France’s leading real estate portals, transaction volumes are expected to reach up to 960,000—representing a 1% to 2% rise—alongside a price increase between 2% and 3%. This signals a welcome turnaround after several years of declining sales and sliding prices.
Modest Price Rebound and Transaction Growth
After a three-year slump, French property prices are stabilizing. The SeLoger Real Estate Price Index (IPI) reveals a national price increase of +0.8% in 2025, reversing the previous downward trend. Notably, major cities are leading this growth:
- Bordeaux: +3.6% year-over-year (as of September 2025)
- Lyon: +2.5%
- Paris: +2.3%
Looking ahead to 2026, SeLoger forecasts that the market will continue this moderate growth, with transactions rising to around 960,000 and prices climbing by 2% to 3% nationwide.
Interest Rates: Stabilization, Not Reduction
Mortgage rates play a critical role in buyer confidence and market momentum. While many had hoped for significant drops in lending rates, they have largely plateaued, remaining between 3.25% and 3.5%. SeLoger’s vice president of data, Thomas Lefebvre, notes that, “Credit rates have not fallen as much as we could have hoped,” and may even edge up slightly by late 2025 before stabilizing for the foreseeable future. This new normal, however, is one French households seem prepared to accept, enabling market activity to adjust and progress.
Market Dynamics: Unblocking Pent-Up Supply
The main consequence of price stabilization and reliable access to credit is that more homeowners—some of whom were previously unable to sell without incurring a loss—will be able to put their properties on the market. “The market should be unblocked: households will take into account the fact that further significant rate cuts are not to be expected, and the recovery in prices will facilitate resales that are currently forced at a loss,” Lefebvre explains. This shift is expected to create a new equilibrium, balancing supply and demand in 2026.
Banks Remain Supportive
Despite relatively high borrowing costs by historical standards, banks continue to facilitate access to home loans, keeping the “credit tap” open and supporting the market’s gradual recovery.
Key Takeaways for France’s Real Estate Outlook in 2026:
- Transactions: 960,000 expected, up 1%–2%
- Prices: Projected increase of 2%–3%
- Key Cities: Strongest growth in Bordeaux, Lyon, and Paris
- Interest Rates: Stable at 3.25%–3.5%, with little prospect for significant drops
- Financing: Banks remain committed to mortgage lending
As France’s property market adjusts to a new interest rate environment, both buyers and sellers can look forward to a more balanced and active market by 2026.
